Forecasting the short-term movement of the stock market and trying to time the market is fruitless. As in all areas of our lives, we can’t control what life throws at us but we can establish a defensive position to best deal with a variety of outcomes. When it comes to our investments, we accomplish this through diversification, dollar cost averaging, maintaining an emergency fund and staying the course. We need to fight the natural inclination to make financial decisions based on emotions. Don’t forget that the stock market is counter-intuitive. Generally, the best time to buy is when things seem really bad and the best time to sell is when things seem the brightest. But then again, we just never know. It is easy to get caught up in the fear or euphoria of the moment. But, keep in mind that emotional reactions to the market can have a devastating impact on your portfolio. The stock market is a long-term investment and we need to avoid reacting to short-term events.
Proof of this can be seen in a Dalbar study conducted in March of 2010 for the time period of 1/1/90 – 12/31/09. During this time the average return in the equity market was 8.8% but the average return for the individual investor was only 3.2%. This discrepancy is a result of investors trying to time the market or reacting emotionally to financial news and events. Below are two quotes that sum this up very well.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
-Peter Lynch, author and former mutual fund manager with Fidelity Investments
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it (time the market) successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently”
– John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Investments