Avoid UnderPerforming The Market; Here’s One Way

13 August 2010 No Comment Print This Post Email This Post

Fourteen years ago I was pedaling my manuscript to publishers and agents across the nation, without much luck. Finally, I discovered an agent who discovered an editor at a publishing house who was willing to give my book, and me, a chance.

It wasn’t just any publishing company and it wasn’t just any editor. I was presented with a wonderful opportunity to work with Suzanne Degalan at Longstreet Press, who had just completed a business book that has been the number one best-selling business book of the past two decades – The Millionaire Next Door.

Ms. Degalan took my manuscript of charts and graphs and lots of data and turned it inside out, encouraging me to get rid of at least half the charts, graphs and data, and just “tell your story.”

The Coffeehouse Investor turned out better than I ever hoped for, thanks in large part to the creative genius of Suzanne Degalan. I keep her words in mind as I continue to share the Coffeehouse message with investors across the country.

Just tell your story.

My story today is about a luncheon I had with a friend earlier this week, who shared with me a sentiment that I suspect many investors are pondering these days, maybe even you . . .

“Bill, you have delivered your Coffeehouse philosophy with a lot of conviction the past ten years, but what do you think of it now, with the dismal returns of the markets the past few years, and the future prospects so bleak? Are you changing your strategy at all these days?”

A fair question, to be sure. In pondering my response, no one knows for sure if the Coffeehouse philosophy is the right one. But for my own account I am sticking with it because no one has presented me with an intelligent alternative to our principles, even though I continue to look at a wide range of investment alternatives.

I am convinced that the three simple principles that have served Coffeehouse Investors so well the past ten years will continue to in the future.

1. Save for a rainy day.
2. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
3. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Why do I stick with these principles? For my portfolio, there is one thing worse than generating low returns in a “low return climate,” and that is making “foolish” decisions (in hindsight), and ending up with returns substantially below those “low returns.”

That is exactly what happened to many investors over the past ten years. Sure, the 5 to 6.5 percent annualized return that a 60/40 Coffeehouse portfolio produced over the past decade isn’t fantastic, but it sure beats the negative returns generated by many portfolios and investors who didn’t stick with a game plan and a philosophy through the bull and bear markets.

Dramatically underperforming what the market gives me over the next ten years is what I want to avoid at all costs. Hey, a Coffeehouse portfolio might generate a meager 3 percent annualized return over the next ten years. That wouldn’t be fun, but it sure beats a negative 4 percent return that you are likely to get if you don’t stay the course with an intelligent portfolio design.

The upside to a globally diversified portfolio of low cost index funds is that if we do have a decade of robust returns, you are positioned to capture the same.

The enemy of a good plan is a great plan.

Stick with a good plan. The Coffeehouse philosophy allows you to do just that – with conviction.

Have a Question for Bill? Submit it here!